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Abstract Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences. 

Abstract Stable oxygen isotopic ratios in corals (δ¹⁸O_coral) are commonly utilized to reconstruct climate variability beyond the limit of instrumental observations. These measurements provide constraints on past seawater temperature, due to the thermodynamics of isotopic fractionation, but also past salinity, as both salinity and seawater δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_sw) are similarly affected by precipitation/evaporation, advection, and other processes. We use historical observations, isotope‐enabled model simulations, and the PAGES Iso2k database to assess the potential of δ¹⁸O_coralto provide information on past salinity. Using ‘‘pseudocorals’’ to represent δ¹⁸O_coralas a function of observed or simulated temperature and salinity/δ¹⁸O_sw, we find that δ¹⁸O_swcontributes up to 89% of δ¹⁸O_coralvariability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Although uncertainty in the δ¹⁸O_sw‐salinity relationship influences the inferred salinity variability, corals from these sites could provide valuable δ¹⁸O_swreconstructions. Coordinated in situ monitoring of salinity and δ¹⁸O_swis vital for improving estimates of hydroclimatic change. 

Paper was published in Earth System Science Data Discussions on Feb 5, 2020.